How do we solve a problem like North Korea? A wholly unpredictable and brutal regime is acquiring the capacity to attack America and its allies. Meanwhile, the US President warns Pyongyang that any threat would be met with “fire and fury.”
There are no easy answers and all the proposals to disarm Pyongyang carry risks. But here are a few thoughts to bear in mind.
First, Kim Jong-un is not crazy. He is a brutal dictator, but he is not mad simply because he has nuclear weapons.
From Pyongyang’s perspective, it makes sense to have nukes. It is certainly not in our interest. But as Henry Kissinger has long argued, it sometimes makes sense to put yourself in your adversary’s shoes and see the world from that perspective.
North Korea is a minor power surrounded by three major powers — China, Japan, and Russia — and with an outside power — the US — that threatens it with regime change. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, so if you’re playing Kim’s hand you should want them. The toppling of Libya’s Colonel Qaddafi in 2011, moreover, gave him a powerful incentive to keep his nuclear program.
Second, Beijing’s leaders have little leverage over their communist comrades. China needs North Korea for geopolitical reasons. It is a vital strategic asset. Remember China entered the Korean War in 1950 when UN forces approached its border.
Beijing has no interest in seeing the regime collapse: that would create a refugee crisis and probably mean a reunified Korea under a US nuclear security umbrella. So China’s leaders are in no position to get tough with Kim.
That said, the Chinese certainly don’t like how Kim sabre rattles. After all, it might cause Japan to go nuclear and has led Washington to deploy a missile-defence system in South Korea, which Beijing opposes.
Third, if there is any hope of getting Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, we are going to have to work out some sort of modus vivendi with his regime.
Yet President Trump sounds even tougher than his predecessors. And that bravado might make the North Koreans more determined to keep their program, perhaps expand it. Worse, it could box in Trump, limit his options and force him on a path towards a preventive war.
Fourth, the US has no viable military option. The North Koreans have nuclear weapons, which they can respond with. They have thousands of artillery pieces, which they can use to hit Seoul. If China came to their rescue, who knows where would that would lead?
Finally, absent an attempt to work out a political settlement, the US and its allies have no choice but to contain North Korea as best we can. Deterring an erratic nuclear state carries risks, to be sure, but they seem far lower than those involved in attacking Pyongyang.
Tom Switzer is a senior research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies
Home > Commentary > Opinion > Goading Kim Jong-un is not Trump’s smartest move
Goading Kim Jong-un is not Trump’s smartest move
How do we solve a problem like North Korea? A wholly unpredictable and brutal regime is acquiring the capacity to attack America and its allies. Meanwhile, the US President warns Pyongyang that any threat would be met with “fire and fury.”
There are no easy answers and all the proposals to disarm Pyongyang carry risks. But here are a few thoughts to bear in mind.
First, Kim Jong-un is not crazy. He is a brutal dictator, but he is not mad simply because he has nuclear weapons.
From Pyongyang’s perspective, it makes sense to have nukes. It is certainly not in our interest. But as Henry Kissinger has long argued, it sometimes makes sense to put yourself in your adversary’s shoes and see the world from that perspective.
North Korea is a minor power surrounded by three major powers — China, Japan, and Russia — and with an outside power — the US — that threatens it with regime change. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, so if you’re playing Kim’s hand you should want them. The toppling of Libya’s Colonel Qaddafi in 2011, moreover, gave him a powerful incentive to keep his nuclear program.
Second, Beijing’s leaders have little leverage over their communist comrades. China needs North Korea for geopolitical reasons. It is a vital strategic asset. Remember China entered the Korean War in 1950 when UN forces approached its border.
Beijing has no interest in seeing the regime collapse: that would create a refugee crisis and probably mean a reunified Korea under a US nuclear security umbrella. So China’s leaders are in no position to get tough with Kim.
That said, the Chinese certainly don’t like how Kim sabre rattles. After all, it might cause Japan to go nuclear and has led Washington to deploy a missile-defence system in South Korea, which Beijing opposes.
Third, if there is any hope of getting Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, we are going to have to work out some sort of modus vivendi with his regime.
Yet President Trump sounds even tougher than his predecessors. And that bravado might make the North Koreans more determined to keep their program, perhaps expand it. Worse, it could box in Trump, limit his options and force him on a path towards a preventive war.
Fourth, the US has no viable military option. The North Koreans have nuclear weapons, which they can respond with. They have thousands of artillery pieces, which they can use to hit Seoul. If China came to their rescue, who knows where would that would lead?
Finally, absent an attempt to work out a political settlement, the US and its allies have no choice but to contain North Korea as best we can. Deterring an erratic nuclear state carries risks, to be sure, but they seem far lower than those involved in attacking Pyongyang.
Tom Switzer is a senior research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies
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