Economic growth is not going to generate the revenue we need to provide the health care our children will expect, and the next generation of taxpayers is going to get a nasty shock unless something is done now to change the way health care gets funded. Forecasting forty years into the future is an inexact science, but Jeremy Sammut’s painstaking analysis in this paper suggests we would be wise to set more store by the Productivity Commission’s analysis than to rely on the federal government’s intergenerational reports’ more optimistic forecasts.